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Mortgages are in a mess, next stop big ticket items like cars and trucks
Now the economy is souring to the point where the most profitable and best selling automotive manufacturers are experiencing a 10% or greater downturn in sales. Customers are beginning to feel the economic pinch and are putting off big ticket purchases like cars and trucks. Car dealer lot traffic has dwindled and even stopped in many areas of the country. Both leading import manufacturers Honda and Toyota are restating their earnings estimates and sales for the rest of 2007 – you know that if industry leaders Honda and Toyota say things are down and they have to restate earnings that auto sales must really be down! All automotive manufacturers are turning up the incentive heat to try and get more customers into their franchised new car dealerships. Honda and Toyota are big enough and have had enough profits to whether the storm, but the big three may not do as well without some form of help from Washington like an increase in Tariffs or some other legislation to give them an upper hand against Toyota and Honda. As Toyota has wisely invested in multiple plants in the U.S. and is well heeled in Washington circles (has numerous lobbyists and politicians in its pockets) it is unlikely that this will ever happen.
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So what may result and what is the future of the big three in Detroit? Not good at best. NASCAR has already shown this as it was once a U.S. only auto manufacturers race involving only cars from the big three (Chrysler, GM and Ford), but now has added Toyota as a successful race brand. Toyota along with Honda is a dominating force in most other racing forums like Formula 1. They will soon dominate NASCAR and change its face forever like what happened when Winston didn’t renew its sponsorship of NASCAR. All races have now become known as the Nextel cup or previously referred to as the Winston series. NASCAR even went so far as to entirely remove the Winston from past race history. Next stop – Toyota and Honda police cruisers and emergency vehicles and import Hummer like SUV’s.
This is what may inevitably happen to the big three automakers unless Honda or Toyota buy them out or merge with them or other drastic changes are made. They could become a distant memory. You can only lose money for so long before a judgment call is made to pack it in and go home. But this is capitalism at its best and only the strong survive. Any company can be successful, but rest on its laurels for too long and you will eventually die. This tumultuous period is a opportunity for the big three to take on the big 2 (Toyota and Honda) at their own game. They need to streamline and focus their efforts (remember Lee Iacocca and how he saved Chrysler? It can be done). But, there are a few more problems facing the big three that were not as much a factor in the past - unions, pensions, and ever spiraling employee health care costs. It will be interesting to see what the highly paid CEO’s of the big three come up with to counter the current economy and the import domination of the U.S. market.
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